Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 25/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 353 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Jul, 28 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (27 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 070
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul NA/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/20