Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 25/0313Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1232Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 068
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20