Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 25/1250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3987 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 066
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20