Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0909Z from Region 2567 (N05W0*). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0204Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 622 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 074
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 010/015-010/012-011/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/45/40