Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at 25/0049Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 993 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Jul, 28 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (27 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 094
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 009/008-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/10/25