Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 25/1029Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/2059Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/1510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2636 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (28 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 101
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/20
Minor Storm 10/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/20/25