Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (28 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 25/2057Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 202 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 077
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 078/076/074
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/010-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/10/10
Minor Storm 30/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 70/10/10