Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 25/0407Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0423Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 073
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15