Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 370 km/s at 25/1520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 735 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 085
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  006/005-010/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/40