Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0907Z from Region 2489 (N09E54). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at 24/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 24/2251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 108
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 108/110/110
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 012/015-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20