Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0229Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at 25/0302Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 25/25/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 127
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 130/140/145
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
