Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 971 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 080
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10