Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 25/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 956 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 071
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20