Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 349 km/s at 25/1827Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/0638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0750Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (28 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 070
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  007/008-012/018-020/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/55