Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2610 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled levels on day two (27 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (28 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 067
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  018/024-011/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/20/10