Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2016
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 25/0320Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 932 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 092
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15