Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at
25/0049Z from Region 1990 (S12E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27
Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 489 km/s at
25/0159Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 23 pfu at 25/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Feb), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (27 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (28 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 90/60/50
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 174
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 180/180/180
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 007/008-011/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/35