Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 25/1211Z from Region 2248 (S20E47). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at 24/2139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/1838Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 431 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 145
Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 25 Dec 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
