Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 24/2221Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 071
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10