Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 999 km/s at 25/1526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 404 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 066
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 007/010-014/016-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 35/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/30/05