Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
25/2021Z from Region 2146 (N09W46). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at
24/2151Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2227Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0910Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (26 Aug, 28 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Aug,
27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 152
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 011/012-017/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/30