Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/1856Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0428Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet levels on day two (27 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 068
Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 25 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 010/010-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/20