Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/1856Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0428Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet levels on day two (27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 068
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  010/010-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20