Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 25/0053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/2318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 082
Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 082/082/081
90 Day Mean 25 Apr 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 006/006-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/20