Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
25/0027Z from Region 2035, which rotated off of the solar disk on 23
April. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Apr) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (27 Apr) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (28 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
540 km/s at 24/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2105Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/2227Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1075 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28
Apr).

III. Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M 20/15/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 125
Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 120/118/115
90 Day Mean 25 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05