Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
September 24, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 23/2120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12883 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 087
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  014/016-008/008-016/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/35
Minor Storm           15/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/65

SpaceRef staff editor.