Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 23/2351Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 085
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 087/088/085
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 008/008-013/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/25