Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
September 24, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 502 km/s at 23/2108Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 615 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Sep, 26 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 107
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 013/015-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/20

SpaceRef staff editor.