Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 24/1954Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/1201Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1108Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 838 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27
Sep).

III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 110
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 004/007-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05