Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 24/1857Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/0904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 24/0906Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 065
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 065/065/065
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 014/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 024/030-012/018-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/30
Minor Storm 30/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 70/40/40