Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 24/0804Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0822Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 070
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10