Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 24/2012Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/1140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2102 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (25 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 078
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 078/077/077
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  028/045-023/035-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           35/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    75/55/40