Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0159Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/1341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 974 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 075
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/074/073
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 028/040-025/040-018/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/40
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/30