Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 24, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0428Z from Region 2434 (S11W75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 520 km/s at 24/1913Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 24/1831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 346 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 106
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 019/024-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/25/10

 

 

SpaceRef staff editor.