Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0517Z from Region 2785 (S20E44). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/2236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2375 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 10/10/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 100
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 007/008-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/40/30