Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 23/2144Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1919 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (27 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 071
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 007/008-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10