Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 24/0831Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/1523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 541 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 079
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 079/079/080
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 020/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 016/020-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10