Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at 24/1454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 113
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 011/015-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20