Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0752Z from Region 1904 (N12W82). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(27 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at
23/2158Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2332Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0054Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 25/25/10
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 127
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 007/008-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/20