Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 May 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
May 24, 2019
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 24/0039Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

III. Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 066
Predicted 25 May-27 May 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 24 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.