Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 23/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 074
Predicted   25 May-27 May 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        24 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15