Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2017

IA. 
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. 
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with
a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
May, 26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 24/0039Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 13965 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The
geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 May)
and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 078
Predicted   25 May-27 May 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        24 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  005/005-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20