Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 24/2032Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).
III. Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 099
Predicted 25 May-27 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 24 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
