Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 24/0145Z from Region 2975 (N14E55). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 24/0817Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 112
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 112/112/112
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 007/010-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/30