Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 23/2115Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1929Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4501 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 084
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10