Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (25 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 297 km/s at 24/2052Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 24/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Mar, 27 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 075
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 073/071/070
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  014/015-008/008-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/30
Minor Storm           10/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/45