Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 23/2323Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/1151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/2024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1624 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 068
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  020/025-013/018-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/45/20