Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 24/2031Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 087
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 088/090/092
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25