Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0554Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 617 km/s at 23/2307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11608 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 133
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 007/008-007/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
