Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (27 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
459 km/s at 24/0353Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/2131Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/2129Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 801 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 096
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05