Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/2210Z from Region 3038 (N16W47). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 24/1508Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 980 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 115
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 010/012-015/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/30